First Quarter Real Estate Statistics for Orange and Chatham County, NC

The turmoil in the national financial markets during the third quarter of 2008 continues to produce scared consumers which in turn produce scared employees. The employed workforce has decreased and the unemployment rate has doubled. This is rare territory for the Triangle area. The current level of employment is the lowest level since March of 2006.  Job creation or loss is one of the main components in the local residential real estate market.

Here are some first quarter statistics for the Orange/Chatham area:

• inventory levels increased 6% in Orange
• inventory levels decreased 2% in Chatham
• first quarter showings were up 27% in Orange from 1Q/08
• first quarter showings were down 23% in Chatham from 1Q/08

Orange County is the only one of the main five counties in our market that had a higher level of showings compared to this time last year. This is a positive sign, however the level of contract pending sales continues to decrease. The number of expired and withdrawn listings has increased dramatically in both Chatham and Orange. These are sellers who have yet to adjust to current market conditions or do not have pricing flexibility.

The result has been a decrease in the amount of closed sales: down 27% in Orange, and down 25% in Chatham. The dramatically lower amount of closings has produced a higher current supply. Now is the time to be the buyer.

Data regarding house prices produces mixed signals. The average list price increased 4% in Orange and 1% in Chatham.  The average closed price increased 8% in Orange and decreased 7% in Chatham.

The market is heading into the part of the year that typically produces the highest amount of showings, contract pendings, and closed sales. Stimulus from Washington aimed at helping first time home buyers should provide a nudge to those sitting on the fence.

In Chatham and Orange County there is a great oversupply of homes in the 400K and up price points. There is no stimulus on the way to produce more buyers in this price segment. The oversupply in this and other segments in Chatham and Orange is expected to continue for an extended period of time. The lack of buyers in these price points is the main explanation for increases in the average list price.

The inventory situation in the 400K+ price points is not going to fix itself quickly. Many practitioners are searching for a bottom. There will probably be a bit more bottom searching before the market can begin to make its recovery.

This post is a summary of the Market Statistic Report, by Stacey Anfindsen, provided by the Greater Chapel Hill Association of Realtors to its members.